CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-23T07:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-23T07:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31098/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a small filament eruption centered near S12E03 which begins to lift-off around 2024-05-23T06:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. This eruption appears to deflect towards the southeast as it leaves the solar disk/initial source location. Post eruptive arcades begin to from in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery around 07:20Z. This event partially overlaps with CME: 2024-05-23T06:48Z. Possible arrival signature: Characterized by a minor amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-05-26T14:35Z to 8nT at 20:13Z. There are a few minor increases in solar wind speed prior to the amplification magnetic field components, most notably an increase from ~350 km/s at 11:08Z to ~450 km/s at 13:05Z. There are no significant increases in temperature or density observed, beyond an increase in density to 8 N/cm^3 at 2024-05-27T03:31Z. An alternative arrival signature could be the one starting at 2024-05-27T02:42Z when it looks like the ICME crossed the spacecraft, with a slight descending profile in the plasma and magnetic field indicating a glancing blow and the possible start of the magnetic cloud around 06:12Z (according to Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-26T14:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-27T00:01Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-23T15:53Z Radial velocity (km/s): 320 Longitude (deg): 025E Latitude (deg): 12S Half-angular width (deg): 25 Notes: Averaged fit for SE centre-disc disappearing filament, visible on e.g. Learmonth H-Alpha around 23/0630UTC, perhaps narrowly preceeded by a second event to its southeast 23/0600UTC. Modelled as an off-ecliptic southward lobe in the latter case, but in this (former) case as an on-ecliptic slightly eastward emission. Low confidence due to poorly-defined ejecta to fit to, but also questionable MOSWOC Enlil background wind field evolution (CH39/- onset or presence). Result is a slight glance, hence long error bars when all else considered. Space weather advisor: Michael LawrenceLead Time: 50.17 hour(s)
Difference: -9.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-24T12:25Z
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